IRIS - 意大利情報部門——聯合評估報告

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意大利情報部門——聯合評估報告122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡiXhglViXPx
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文件編號：AISE/AISI〔2020〕-0805-聯合極秘122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡvC6Hyq754l
密級：極秘（僅限意大利總理及國防部長本人查閱）122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9sJfoSF2iv
保存期限：永久保存122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9CmPEvsyXn
簽發人：AISE局長馬可·羅西（Marco Rossi）／AISI局長保羅·貝爾蒂（Paolo Berti）122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡesuelDguTB
主送：意大利總理（僅限本人查閱）122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡJqpWgY19XW
抄送：國防部長（僅限本人查閱）122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9BJ7zZTciO
事由：關於「福爾泰扎堡壘事件」之「聯合評估報告」——以及對「IRIS團隊」之「態度建議」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡZ0B0nOcoku
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一、事件概述122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡXYHwtur8qj
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2020年8月5日凌晨，福爾泰扎堡壘（Forte di Fortezza）發生「爆炸事件」。經本局「聯合調查」，現已確認以下事實：122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡiZLxG9C2mU
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項目內容122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡThkzFWNWt0
地點福爾泰扎堡壘（意大利南蒂羅爾地區）122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡNo1elmtrUR
時間 2020年8月5日凌晨1時至3時122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡehDsKEdqMl
目標赤道組織秘密金庫（藏有大量金條、美金及債券）122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡHFmvtpBFZu
執行者 IRIS團隊（四人：G、車婉婉、馮盈盈、南空直美）122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ303RKsFsZs
結果金庫被「完全摧毁」——「全部」金條、美金、債券「化為灰燼」——「六名赤道守衛」全部「生還」——「無死亡」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡw6KkPybtp0
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現場遺留牆上「紅色噴漆」寫有「FUCK YOU」——署名「IRIS」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡpcxQIzu5NQ
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二、對IRIS團隊之「綜合評估」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡKl1up8Z5A4
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經AISE及AISI「聯合分析」，現對IRIS團隊作出以下「綜合評估」：122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡugaXJ0bNXu
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（一）作戰能力122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡEx9moJc9It
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評估項目評級說明122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡzLYfDehcAA
潛入能力 A級（極高）能夠「避開」堡壘周邊嘅「閉路電視系統」及「守衛巡邏」——「無聲」進入金庫122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡb3iXuXburS
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戰鬥能力 A級（極高）四名成員「協同作戰」——「迅速」制服六名守衛——「全過程十五秒」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡsKKsqK2WK1
技術能力 A級（極高）能夠「入侵」堡壘嘅「電子監控系統」——「遙距引爆」炸藥122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡL7MiAxWveF
撤退能力 A級（極高）成功「向北」撤離——「進入」奧地利邊境——「甩掉」追兵122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡRnZ3Ty68bY
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（二）戰略意圖122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡwtCTs7uRHC
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評估項目內容122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ53FulZtkCh
目標 IRIS「針對」嘅係「赤道組織」——而「唔係」意大利政府或意大利人民122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡlwBNlwGydG
手段 IRIS「選擇」唔殺守衛——「留活口」——顯示佢哋「有克制」——而「唔係」冷血殺手122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡUfIf6iurOA
訊息「FUCK YOU」——係向赤道組織「宣示」——IRIS「唔會放過」佢哋122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡMqoJ3Cavgz
立場 IRIS「有」中國中央「支持」——佢哋「唔係」非法武裝組織——而係「獲認證」嘅「反恐力量」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ10dG2MtsDo
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（三）對意大利之「威脅評估」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡjfU2QkqL5W
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評估項目評級說明122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡniYE1KDuhd
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直接威脅 🟢 零 IRIS「並無」對意大利政府或人民「構成威脅」——佢哋「只針對」赤道組織122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ8mBsfxLdkQ
間接影響 🟡 輕微 IRIS行動「未造成」平民傷亡——「未引發」社會恐慌——「未損害」意大利國際形象122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡT3x9XmntjQ
潛在風險 🟢 低如果意大利「主動追捕」IRIS——可能會「得罪」中國——「得不償失」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡGYrxacLK56
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三、戰略建議122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡZxiUSwTcIA
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基於以上評估，AISE及AISI聯合建議如下：122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡbni12QSWRP
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建議說明122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡcaP7LeEkM4
1. 唔主動追捕IRIS IRIS「針對」赤道——「唔係針對」意大利——追捕佢哋會「得罪」中國——「冇必要」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡXsvrowEKeu
2. 發佈「低調」通緝令對外「做吓樣」——展示意大利政府「有行動」——但「唔會」真係「全力追捕」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡnWseiLbBi3
3. 暗中觀察IRIS 如果IRIS「再次」進入意大利——AISE會「監視」但「唔會干預」——除非佢哋「危害」意大利國家安全122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡGUlqFwTEvw
4. 考慮未來合作 IRIS係「對抗赤道」嘅「有效力量」——意大利「將來」可能「需要」佢哋「協助」122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ4C9F8xY6rD
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四、總結122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ8ozvHLsOYS
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IRIS團隊喺「福爾泰扎堡壘事件」中展示咗「極高」嘅「作戰能力」同「戰略克制」。122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡoSVkEWXOBw
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佢哋「針對」嘅係「赤道組織」——而「唔係」意大利。122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡmm4HgrQu34
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佢哋「有」中國中央「支持」——而「唔係」非法武裝組織。122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡZgVcPtwKvu
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本局強烈建議——意大利政府「唔主動追捕」IRIS——「發佈低調通緝令」做吓樣——「暗中觀察」——「考慮未來合作」。122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ5iGqxuf5Go
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（AISE／AISI 聯合印）122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡldpX6Zz12J
2020年8月5日122Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡlYHNoQ82Ie